Capital Markets Review and Outlook
The first impeachment hearings of a U.S. president this century took center-stage in November. Although the end result of an acquittal in the U.S. Senate (if the House passes articles of impeachment) is the likely outcome, this matter will continue to be a distraction for the White House…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
In August, the trade war between the United States and China moved center stage for the global financial markets. The month began with President Trump’s unexpected announcement that the United States would move forward with tariffs on almost all remaining imports from China…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
The final month of the 2nd quarter was marked by the Federal Reserve’s about-face with regards to monetary policy. Responding to growing concerns that the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China was having a more pronounced negative effect on the U.S. economy, the Fed changed its posture on interest rates…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
In early May, the abrupt change in tone related to the previously more constructive trade talks between the U.S. and China had a negative effect on economic growth expectations. Robust employment growth together with consumer confidence near record highs have underpinned a firm U.S. economy as seen in the 3.1% growth in real GDP for the first quarter of 2019…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
Positive upside surprises continue to characterize the U.S. economy. The April jobs report showed employment gains of 263,000 for the month bringing the average increase in payrolls this year to 205,000 per month. The unemployment rate in April dropped to 3.6%, the lowest in 50 years…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
Despite the dismal February jobs report which was released in early March showing employment gains of just 20,000, the U.S. labor market remains firm. Over the past six months, employment growth has averaged 190,000 per month. Weekly jobless claims are near the lows in 50 years…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
Market fears during the last quarter of 2018 of an impending recession late this year or early 2020 were put to rest with the strong employment report for the month of January which showed job gains of 304,000. While economic growth is likely to downshift this year, muted inflation and liquidity from global central banks are likely to underpin a continuation of the current economic expansion…
Market Volatility and Outlook
While equity markets rebounded in the final week of 2018 following steep losses for the month of December and the fourth quarter, the results for the full year were negative across risk markets. A confluence of events ranging from the trade issues with China and tightening monetary policy to concerns about slowing economic growth and the partial government shutdown have weighed on investor sentiment and caused market volatility to spike…
Capital Markets Review and Outlook
After a shaky start well into the third week of the month, global equity markets rebounded in November following the sharp selloff the previous month. Despite the rebound in equity markets, Treasury yields declined reflecting expectations for fewer additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve…
Staying the Course
There are many factors at play for the recent steep losses in global equity markets including concerns that economic growth generally and company revenues and earnings more specifically are slowing down, escalating trade tensions with China, rising interest rates in the U.S. and rising political risk in Europe related to Italy as well as the Brexit negotiations. It is, however, important to note that despite these issues, the underpinnings for a continuation of the global economic expansion remain in place…